Why Iran 2021 Election Is Different

In recent years, elections in Iran have always been watched closely by the international community. However, the upcoming 2021 election holds a special significance due to various factors that set it apart from previous ones. In this article, we will delve into the reasons behind why the Iran 2021 election is different and what it means for the country and the world.

1. Post-Nuclear Deal Era

The 2021 election comes in the wake of major political developments, including the revival of the Iran Nuclear Deal. With the potential return of economic sanctions relief and reintegration into the global market, the election holds the promise of shaping the direction of Iran's foreign policy and economic future.

The outcome of the election will heavily impact the country's relationship with the United States and its Western allies. It will determine whether Iran continues to engage in dialogue and cooperation or takes a more confrontational approach.

Why Iran's 2021 Election Is Different: Explosive Society, Impending Boycott, Unprecedented Purge

by Matthew Pratt Guterl(Kindle Edition)

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2. Generation Shift

A significant difference in the 2021 election is the generational shift among voters. Iran's younger population, comprising a major portion of the electorate, has different aspirations and concerns compared to previous generations. They are more connected to the global community through technology, social media, and the internet, giving them a broader worldview.

This generational shift is expected to bring new dynamics to the political landscape and could impact the outcome of the election. Younger voters are likely to prioritize issues such as economic opportunities, social reforms, and human rights.

3. Economic Challenges and Anti-Government Protests

The Iranian economy has been grappling with significant challenges, including high inflation, unemployment, and a shrinking middle class. These economic issues have fueled discontent among the population, leading to widespread anti-government protests in recent years.

The 2021 election takes place against this backdrop of economic challenges and social unrest. The outcome will be crucial in determining whether the new government can successfully address these issues and restore stability and prosperity for the Iranian people.

4. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's Health Concerns

Another factor that sets the 2021 election apart is the uncertainty surrounding the health of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As the highest-ranking authority in the country, the Supreme Leader's health condition could have significant implications for the future of Iranian politics.

In the event of a power transition, the election becomes a determining factor in shaping the country's political landscape. It could provide an opportunity for different factions within the ruling elite to consolidate their positions and influence.

5. International Scrutiny and Global Geopolitics

The 2021 election is taking place at a time when Iran's geopolitical significance has been heightened. Its regional influence, particularly in conflicts such as the Syrian civil war and the Yemeni crisis, has drawn international attention.

Given Iran's strategic location and its potential impact on global security, the international community closely monitors its elections. The outcome of the 2021 election could shape the regional dynamics and have implications for the stability of the Middle East.

The Iran 2021 election stands out as a pivotal moment in the country's political landscape. With the post-nuclear deal era, a generational shift in voters, economic challenges, and international scrutiny, the outcome has the potential to significantly shape Iran's future.

It remains to be seen whether the election results will herald a new era of cooperation and progress or deepen geopolitical tensions. As the world watches, the Iranian people have the opportunity to determine the path their country will take. The results of the election are eagerly awaited to see the direction Iran will go in 2021 and beyond.

Why Iran's 2021 Election Is Different: Explosive Society, Impending Boycott, Unprecedented Purge

by Matthew Pratt Guterl(Kindle Edition)

5 out of 5

Language	:	English
File size	:	11424 KB
Text-to-Speech	:	Enabled
Screen Reader	:	Supported
Enhanced typesetting	:	Enabled
Word Wise	:	Enabled
Print length	:	82 pages

FREE

This report highlights the difference between the 2021 election and all prior 12 presidential elections in Iran.

While every election since 1979 has been rigged, they have served to give an appearance of democracy and republicanism to the ruling theocracy. The 2021 election is, however, vastly different, because Iran in 2021 is on the threshold of a fundamental transformation.

Khamenei finds his regime increasingly weak and vulnerable following a series of uprisings since 2017, endemic corruption, and a bankrupt economy. The explosive state of Iranian society was reflected in the crushing blow of the 2020 parliamentary election boycott, and in the growing prowess of the nationwide organized opposition. All of these crises are aggravated by ferocious factional infighting. Faced with these realities, Khamenei has opted to close ranks and consolidate power in the hands of those absolutely loyal to him to prevent the seismic shift he knows is coming.

In a move driven by the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council has disqualified several longtime establishment figures, most significantly Ali Larijani, the former speaker of the regime's parliament for 12 years. A former IRGC brigadier general and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larijani has been a senior advisor to Khamenei and a member of his inner circle.

Khamenei has now dispensed with the no-longer beneficial "moderate- hardliner" farce in favor of securing the presidency of his selected candidate, Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi, notorious for his key role, as Deputy Prosecutor of Tehran and a member of the "death committee," in the executions of as many as 30,000 political prisoners, primarily activists of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK),in 1988. Raisi began his rise in the regime's hierarchy by ordering hundreds of other executions in the early 1980s.

By sacking his inner circle in favor of Raisi, his most loyal ally, Khamenei will rely heavily on Raisi as well as the IRGC to counter the popular discontent, as he will rely on the Qods Force to expand his proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The more isolated he finds himself at home, the more he needs to count on such repressive institutions.

This election marks an end to the games and masquerades. It is now evident that the true fight is between the people and the organized opposition seeking freedom and democracy on the one side, and the entirety of the regime headed by Khamenei and Raisi and powered by the IRGC on the other.

The electoral purge is, however, only a stopgap, which will likely backfire, given the fragile state of the regime. Khamenei has alienated a significant segment of the establishment and further narrowed the theocracy's power base. The tide has shifted in favor of the people, who are expected to respond to the Supreme Leader with a massive boycott, the flip side of their desire to end the rule of the ayatollahs and establish a free and democratic republic.